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Are we in a bear market?
This is no bear market!
I keep hearing people confidently say that on TV. Then I look at the numbers so far this year.
Let me share a few.
The Russell 2000 (small cap) is down 22%, trading at levels not seen since May 2013.
Mid Caps have lost 17%, while Transports are down almost 30% already.
Emerging markets are down nearly 30% and trading at levels last seen in the middle of 2009!
Nope, nothing to see folks.
Now having said everything above, the markets at this current time are extremely oversold and due for a bounce.
What does that mean?
I know the trading addicts out there won’t be thrilled to hear this, but in general it means you should sit for a bit and see what happens.
I’ve been able to stay in this game since 1998, and one of the biggest reasons for that is knowing when to sit and when to push.
The markets rally is going to tell us almost everything we need to know about things going forward.
Onto another matter quickly here: As many of you know I’ve had some major health issues over the last 7 months. I was helping my mom and dad do some yard work and got a small cut on my leg. Four days later I was flown to the University of Iowa with Necrotising fasciitis and sepsis. On four different occasions my family was told they should hurry up to come see me because I was unlikely to make it.
I did make it, but it’s been a struggle. Seventeen surgeries in all (they ended up taking out close to half of my left thigh and following that skin grafting), kidney failure and dialysis.
The good news is that I’m back to about 80% now. I’m still requiring about 10 hours a night of sleep, which is frustrating because I’m used to getting by on 5 or 6, but the infection is totally cleared up and I had my last dialysis treatment two weeks ago.
Now that I’m doing better you’re going to be hearing from me a lot more often.
Last note – I’ll be getting a webinar together on Bear Market trading strategies in the coming weeks. Having been at this since 1998 I’ve seen a few of them and know how to get through it. Most people assume that in a bear market you will make most of your money shorting stocks – and that’s one way – but there are also bull markets that will develop – and they actually tend to be much stronger than those that occur in up markets. There will be a lot for me to discuss and you to learn.