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Futures are currently trading down a little bit.
I don’t really have a ton to say about the market here. The last two days we have had a pretty strong rally. My own feeling is that it’s not the start of a bull market, it’s just simply a washout so we are moving higher.
Keep in mind that during a bear market the rallies actually tend to be stronger than they are in bull markets.
I will say that I’m a bit surprised to see the market looking like it’s going to be down today because I had thought that we’d rally a few more days. If we’re not able to get a couple more days of strength in the market then I think we’re going to have a huge move down because that’s going to show extreme weakness in the market. One of the most important rules to follow in trading is that things that should go up, better go up. Things that should go down, better go down. If they don’t, the opposite thing is very likely. That’s exactly why I was able to short oil last year at $102 and just only recently closed that trade. It’s why I went 100% to cash in March of 2000, it’s why I bought airline stocks immediately on the open after 9/11 and a bunch of other trades too. It’s the single best “indicator” you will ever find and it’s been consistent throughout history and markets.
Last thing. I’ve had a lot of people asking about trading psychology and discipline. I’ll be writing a bit about that over the next few weeks, maybe doing a webinar too if you guys are interested. Let me know.