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Late, it ain’t always better than never
Well good morning!
According to the Wall Street Journal “Some market signals start to flash red!” Some? Now they warn you?
I guess some people might make the “Better late that never” claim, but I learned how dangerous that could be this summer. I’d gone over to my parents place to help them do some yard work and cut my leg. A few days later my leg started to hurt a bit and I had a fever. The next day my leg was killing me and I was really sick. Around 6 or 7 on Wednesday I knew something was really wrong but didn’t want to screw around in the Emergency room, so I figured I’d just suck it up until morning. At about 11 my 17 year old daughter came to tell me good night, took a look at me and freaked out. She told me she was bringing me to the hospital and I tried to say no, to which she replied “If you say no again I’m calling 9-11 and Gramma and Grampa” – so, off I went! We get to the ER and it’s packed, just like I knew it would be. People had obviously been waiting hours just to be triaged, let alone go back to see the doctor. Not Brandon though! A nurse took one look at my sorry ass, pointed at me and said “You, come with me!” They got me an IV and some antibiotics and pain medicine and then put me in the helicopter to go to Iowa City. Got there and had an 11 hour surgery because my small cut had turned into Necrotising Fasciites – better known as “Flesh eating bacteria”. Anyway after my surgery the doctor asked why I waited so long and I told her that I was just going to go see my doctor in the morning because I figured the ER would take forever. She told me that had I waited until morning at the very least I would have lost my leg, probably my life.
So, late isn’t always better than never! Not in life, and not with your money either.
Ok so back to the stock market.
I told you yesterday morning that if the market could not continue its rally it would be in a lot of trouble. I wasn’t expecting it to be as bad as it ended up being yesterday. Declining issues were trouncing advancers all day. Small caps getting thrashed and financials getting trashed. We haven’t even talked about oil, which more or less got taken to an alley and shot in the back of the head. (Btw if you have not had a chance to listen to the podcast I did with Corey last week about the current market, go listen here: http://ifiredwallstreet.com/january-2016-market-crash-udate/
In it I talk a lot about oil and oil stocks. Right now there is not a lot I’m looking to do with oil, but going forward it’s going to be one of the more interesting opportunities out there, in fact it might actually be one of those once or twice in a life time type of situations)
So what to do here? Well I’m still basically in cash and waiting. I know that my sitting in cash pretty often doesn’t always make me the most exciting guy you can be following, but I’ve always had this theory that if I piss all my money away on dumb stuff I won’t be able to make any later on good stuff. It’s worked out pretty well for me since in 20 years now I’ve only had one where I lost money and I’ve only underperformed the indexes three times.
Several people have asked if I can do another audio or a webinar for you. I’ve got the flu or a cold right now and my voice would probably bring tears to your eyes, but I’m getting one together and will have something for you by the end of the week. (my twin three year old niece and nephew have been staying with me the last five days while my brother and sister in law are on vacation, I think they are basically biological weapons facilities. If ISIS ever got ahold of them, we’d all be in trouble)
Last but not least. Over the last several weeks I’ve been working on a lot of educational material. Things to teach you how I approach the market, fundamentally, technically and psychologically. I’ll be going in depth like I have not done since 2006 when I left TFMS. When my ex and I split up I agreed not to teach trading for at least five years so as to not hurt her in the business. I’d planned to come back after the five years, but in the prior five years I got involved in a lot of other businesses and just that life happened, so it’s taken until now. It will be worth the wait though, that I promise.
As always if you’ve got any comments or questions hit reply and ask away.